Skip to main content

Predictability

I love models. Yes, metoo ... But I'm talking about algorithms here. Those who are a bit into mathematics know that with a little curve fitting you can go all the way. Lets aside Fourier. If you do not understand this, then I advise you to look at this Homer (Simpson) orbit example:
Maybe now you understand that a climate model can be made for any outcome. And then you also understand that it is wise to let the value of a model depend on any proof of the correctness of a model by testing it against measurements. The models of the club of Rome, for example, have not (yet) come true while they already beat the already known dates.

Is this bad? Not at all. We do not learn much without modeling and testing. I do have a problem with the way the press deals with modeling. They publish a scientific research as fact or almost fact at the moment that it offers sensational outcomes. Again something like that today!

'Coming four years will be unusually warm'

Fortunately, the text does add nuance "Drijfhout and his colleague concluded that the probability that the earth is warmer than normal until 2022 is according to them a consequence of a kind of break in global warming between 2000 and 2014. In that period the oceans have absorbed more heat, which is now coming back, but that expectation is dependent on other factors, for example volcanic eruptions and a changing amount of CO2 emissions can affect the global temperature. "

For the time being, meteorologists can not produce a reasonable weather forecast much further than a week ahead. Everything else is fun, interesting, valuable science, but nothing more. Whatever the press dakes from it.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

De EU en de crypto war! Overheid zie toch eens de kansen!!

  Naar aanleiding van het uitstekende artikel van Fred Hage in de Computable van  27 november 2020. Overheden worstelen met End-to-end encryptie en ‘lawful interception’. Met andere woorden privacy op internet aan de ene kant en de mogelijkheid criminaliteit te onderzoeken aan de andere kant. Het blijft me verbazen dat overheden blind zijn voor de kansen die dit dilemma biedt! Stel "ik kan bij de NL-overheid mijn encryptie regelen" (met de wetenschap dat ze mee kunnen kijken). Dan doe ik dat toch zolang ik niets te verbergen heb! Dus: Overheid wordt eens wakker en bied zelf encryptie services aan! Ga met de betrokken internet diensten zoals Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft .. etc. om de tafel zitten en ontwikkel encryptiediensten en standaards voor (vertrouwde) burgers waar ze gebruik van kunnen maken. De diensten kunnen dan vertrouwd verkeer van onvertrouwd verkeer onderscheiden. Ze kunnen vertrouwd verkeer direct, eventueel automatisch, onderzoeken. En meer e

The Raspberry Pi revolution.

I was ready with ChromeCast when Google stopped with Chromcast Audio. So I was looking for an alternative. For audio, I found SnapCast . The best open source solution I could find. Not perfect and not general user-friendly but manageable for me. For my TV spot I found Kodi on LibreElec apears to be the best solution for the time being to replace Chromecast. There again not as user-friendly as Apple TV or Chromecast but manageable for me. The Raspberry-Pi is need little thing and in the Flirc case it looks great. But I have two issues to be resolved before I can move on in getting out of it what I want (Running Firefox on it): Good support for Debian 64 bit Good graphical hardware acceleration When these are resolved, the Raspberry Pi will spark a revolution in the computer landscape.

Salary scale-up percentage under pressure

 In my earning norm model , I have lowered the scale-up to adapt to the crisis. What is the scale-up? The scale-up is the gross salary multiplier from the scale below. So from the bottom salary every next scale salary is multiply with the scale-up from the lower scale. This scale-up was 1.45 (thus + 45%). But this figure will come down the coming time because of the economic insecure times we are about to experience. Depending on the economic developments it probably has to be lowered in the coming months. I will follow the developments and adapt the model accordingly. Scale up It is now 1.3 (+30%)